Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH Rally Slows After Reclaiming $2,300 Cost Basis

Swan.my.id — Jakarta - The Ethereum price forecast is drawing fresh attention after ETH reclaimed its average on-chain cost basis near $2,306. The move followed a sharp 30% weekly gain and pushed the cryptocurrency into a key technical zone.

Ethereum was trading around $2,450 after the latest advance. However, the rally has started to show signs of moderation. Increased exchange inflows suggest that some investors are taking profits after the recent surge.

At the same time, larger Ethereum holders continue to accumulate. This contrast creates an important test for ETH. Retail selling could pressure the price, but whale demand may help support the broader bullish trend.

Ethereum Reclaims Key On-Chain Cost Basis

Ethereum recently moved above its realized price, which stood near $2,306. This level represents the average on-chain cost basis for investors.

The recovery is important because ETH had spent a prolonged period below this level. Historically, investors who held losing positions may sell after prices return to their entry point.

That behavior appears to be emerging again. Ethereum exchange netflows remained positive for the second consecutive day. Meanwhile, the seven-day moving average moved into positive territory.

Positive exchange netflows mean more ETH is entering exchanges than leaving them. In many cases, this can indicate stronger potential selling pressure.

However, exchange inflows do not always lead to a major correction. Some investors may simply move coins to exchanges while preparing for future transactions.

The current price action therefore needs to be viewed alongside holder behavior. That data provides a more detailed picture of market sentiment.

Retail Investors Take Profits as Whales Accumulate

Recent selling activity has mainly come from smaller large-scale retail wallets. Addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH reduced their combined holdings by about 207,000 ETH last week.

The selling contrasts sharply with activity among larger holders. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH remained relatively stable.

Their combined balance stood at roughly 13.623 million ETH. This suggests that the group has not aggressively reduced exposure despite the recent price increase.

Meanwhile, larger whale wallets showed stronger accumulation. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH increased their combined balance by about 182,000 ETH.

This divergence is significant for the Ethereum price forecast. Retail investors appear more willing to secure profits, while whales are maintaining or increasing their exposure.

If larger investors continue buying, their demand could help absorb selling pressure. However, ETH still needs to hold key support levels to maintain the bullish structure.

A sustained move above the on-chain cost basis would also strengthen the recovery. Conversely, a sharp move below it could increase caution across the market.

US Investor Sentiment Shows Signs of Improvement

Investor sentiment in the United States is also showing signs of recovery. The Coinbase Premium Index has moved closer to positive territory after remaining negative for several months.

The index is closely watched because it provides insight into demand from US-based investors. A move toward positive territory can indicate improving buying interest.

Meanwhile, US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds continued their recent positive trend. The products recorded net inflows of $115.5 million on Monday, according to SoSoValue data.

The inflow marked six consecutive trading days of net positive flows. This development provides another supportive factor for Ethereum.

ETF demand can influence market sentiment because it gives traditional investors a regulated way to gain exposure to ETH. Therefore, continued inflows could help strengthen demand if the trend persists.

However, ETF flows can change quickly. Investors should therefore watch several indicators instead of relying on one source of market momentum.

Ethereum Price Forecast: Golden Cross Supports Bullish Outlook

The technical picture remains constructive despite signs of short-term overheating. Ethereum recorded about $103.2 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours.

Short positions accounted for roughly $69 million of those liquidations. This suggests that some bearish traders were caught off guard by the latest price move.

More importantly, Ethereum has developed an aggressive golden cross configuration. The 20-day exponential moving average moved above the 200-day EMA.

The 50-day EMA also remains above the 100-day EMA. Together, these signals point to strengthening short- and medium-term momentum.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, remained in the upper 70s. Meanwhile, the Stochastic indicator stayed in the upper 80s.

Both readings indicate strong momentum. However, they also point to overbought conditions.

Because of this, ETH may need a period of consolidation. A temporary pullback could allow the market to reset before another attempt to move higher.

Key Levels Traders Are Watching

The technical structure provides several important levels for the next stage of the Ethereum price forecast.

• $2,431: Initial support near the latest horizontal price level.
• $2,306: The average on-chain realized price and an important psychological level.
• $2,172: Additional structural support during a deeper decline.
• $2,162: Approximate 20-day EMA support.
• $2,144: Approximate 200-day EMA support.
• $1,961: A deeper structural support zone.
• $2,678: The next major resistance area above the current price.
• $2,865: A higher resistance level that could become important during a stronger rally.

Holding the $2,431 area would help maintain the immediate bullish structure. However, losing that level could expose ETH to deeper support around its moving averages.

On the upside, a sustained break above $2,678 could strengthen the bullish case. Ethereum would then face another major challenge near $2,865.

ETH Rally May Need a Short Pause

The current Ethereum price forecast remains broadly bullish, but the market is not without risks. Momentum indicators are already showing elevated readings.

That means a straight-line rally may become difficult to sustain. Instead, ETH could enter a consolidation phase before attempting another breakout.

The behavior of large holders will be especially important. Continued whale accumulation could provide a strong foundation for the next move.

US investor demand also deserves close attention. A sustained positive Coinbase Premium Index and continued ETF inflows would strengthen the recovery narrative.

On the other hand, rising exchange inflows could signal increasing profit-taking. If those inflows accelerate while whale accumulation slows, selling pressure could become more significant.

For now, Ethereum remains above its key on-chain cost basis. The combination of stronger technical momentum, improving US sentiment, and whale accumulation keeps the broader outlook constructive.

Nevertheless, traders should monitor support and resistance carefully. Overbought conditions mean that short-term volatility could remain high.

The information above is for market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices can move sharply in either direction. Investors should conduct their own research and consider the risks before making financial decisions.