GOTO Shares Face New Downside Risk as BEI Reviews Rp1 Floor

Swan.my.id - Jakarta, GOTO shares face renewed downside pressure after the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) planned to reduce the minimum trading price from Rp50 to Rp1 per share.

The proposed rule would allow PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk shares to move below the so-called gocap level. GOTO shares have remained at Rp50, their lowest trading level, for four months since May 5, 2026.

The policy is intended to restore liquidity in shares trading at the Rp50 floor. However, the change could also expose investors to greater floating losses and increase short-term volatility.

GOTO Shares Could Test Rp20-Rp30

Nafan Aji Gusta, senior technical analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas, estimated that GOTO shares could test Rp20-Rp30 after the Rp50 floor is removed. Under a stronger selling-pressure scenario, the shares could move toward Rp10-Rp20.

Nafan assigned a “NOT RATED” recommendation to GOTO. He said the removal of the minimum price could pressure the stock in the short term, although it could also support a healthier price-discovery process.

Future movements will depend on the balance between supply and demand, market liquidity, and the actions of major investors. Transactions in the negotiated market at around Rp23-Rp25 per share could become one reference point for price discovery if the new rule takes effect.

Potential Floating Loss for Telkomsel

The potential decline in GOTO shares could increase unrealized losses for several shareholders. Telkomsel reportedly holds around 23.72 billion GOTO shares, with an acquisition price of approximately Rp270 per share.

At a GOTO price of Rp50, the difference from that acquisition price would be about Rp220 per share. Based on the reported shareholding, the estimated mark-to-market loss would reach around Rp5.22 trillion.

If the price fell to Rp25, the estimated loss would rise to approximately Rp5.81 trillion. At Rp20, the figure would reach around Rp5.93 trillion. Nafan emphasized that these figures represent estimates based on acquisition price and reported holdings, not losses that have been fully realized.

He also noted that floating-loss calculations for Morgan Stanley could not be made in the same way because the institution accumulated its position gradually, including purchases near Rp25.

GOTO Sell Queue Reaches About 400 Million Lots

Selling pressure was also visible in the trading queue. BEI intraday data at 11:26 a.m. showed a sell queue of approximately 400.46 million lots for GOTO shares.

The large queue indicates that excess supply remains a major challenge. According to Nafan, allowing prices below Rp50 could intensify selling because shareholders previously limited by the floor would gain room to place orders at lower levels.

At the same time, removing the floor could help the market form a price that better reflects supply and demand. This process may give institutional and strategic investors more room to assess GOTO’s valuation.

BEI Still Preparing the New Rule

BEI is reviewing the proposed reduction with its exchange members. The implementation has been postponed because market authorities are still waiting for eight additional members to become ready.

BEI President Director Jeffrey Hendrik said 83 exchange members had passed two trading simulations, while eight others were not yet ready. The exchange continues to communicate with those members before applying the new rule fully.

Meanwhile, GOTO reported net profit of Rp608 billion in the first half of 2026. However, Nafan said the company’s 2026 EBITDA outlook remained under pressure, prompting an adjustment to its performance guidance.