JAKARTA, Indonesia — Swan.my.id — Bitcoin seasonality is once again drawing attention as October begins. Historical data shows that Bitcoin has recorded an average October return of around 19% from 2013 to 2025, significantly above the average October performance of Indonesia’s IHSG and the S&P 500.
However, the difference in historical returns also comes with a major difference in risk. Bitcoin has experienced much wider annual price swings than traditional stock indexes, including sharp corrections in several years.
The comparison between Bitcoin, IHSG, and the S&P 500 therefore offers a broader view of market seasonality. Rather than determining which asset is better, the historical data highlights how different asset classes can have very different return and risk characteristics.
Bitcoin October Seasonality Shows a Strong Historical Pattern
Seasonality refers to a recurring tendency for an asset or market to perform differently during a particular period of the calendar year. In the cryptocurrency market, October is often associated with the term “Uptober,” reflecting Bitcoin’s historical tendency to post positive returns during the month.
Data cited by Pluang shows that Bitcoin delivered an average October return of approximately 19% between 2013 and 2025. Bitcoin recorded positive October performance in 10 of those 13 years, giving it a historical positive rate of about 77%.
The figure is substantially higher than the historical October averages recorded by major stock indexes.
The IHSG recorded an average October return of approximately 1.16% between 2016 and 2025, with positive performance in eight of those 10 years. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 recorded an average October return of around 1.1% over the 2006–2025 period, according to the data cited in the Pluang analysis.
These figures show a substantial difference in magnitude. However, they should not be interpreted as a forecast for October 2026 or as an indication that Bitcoin will necessarily outperform stocks.
Historical seasonality can provide context, but it does not guarantee future performance.
Bitcoin Has a Much Wider Return Range
The difference becomes even more apparent when looking beyond October.
Bitcoin's historical annual returns have included extremely large gains as well as deep declines. According to the data cited by Pluang, Bitcoin gained approximately 1,368.90% in 2017 and another 303.16% in 2020.
At the other end of the spectrum, Bitcoin declined approximately 73.56% in 2018 and 64.27% in 2022.
Such large movements help explain why Bitcoin's long-term compound annual growth rate can appear considerably higher than traditional stock indexes.
Using annual Bitcoin return data from 2016 to 2025, Pluang calculated a historical CAGR of approximately 70.1% per year. The calculation uses the geometric average of annual returns and therefore reflects the impact of both exceptional gains and significant market corrections.
For comparison, the S&P 500, including reinvested dividends, recorded a CAGR of approximately 15.3% between September 2016 and September 2026 based on the cited data.
The IHSG recorded a CAGR of approximately 3.08% per year for 2015–2024 in the source comparison.
These figures cover different periods and methodologies, so they should not be treated as a perfectly standardized performance comparison.
Why Higher Historical Returns Come With Higher Risk
Bitcoin's larger historical returns are closely connected to its higher volatility.
Unlike broad stock indexes, Bitcoin is a single digital asset rather than a basket of companies. The S&P 500, for example, represents hundreds of publicly traded companies across different industries. The IHSG similarly reflects the performance of listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
This structural difference means the price behavior of an individual cryptocurrency can be considerably different from that of a diversified stock index.
Bitcoin's history includes periods of rapid appreciation followed by substantial corrections. As a result, an investor's actual experience can differ significantly from a long-term CAGR calculation.
For example, an investor holding Bitcoin through the 2018 market decline would have experienced a decline of roughly 73.56% that year. A CAGR of 70.1% does not mean an investor earned 70.1% every year.
This distinction is important when interpreting historical investment data.
Does Bitcoin Always Outperform Stock Indexes in October?
No historical pattern guarantees the same outcome every year.
Bitcoin's positive October history has contributed to the popularity of the “Uptober” narrative. However, the pattern has also experienced exceptions.
According to the data cited by Pluang, Bitcoin fell approximately 8.5% in October 2025, ending a series of positive October performances that had continued since 2019.
This example illustrates why seasonality should be treated as historical information rather than a trading signal with a guaranteed outcome.
The same principle applies to stock indexes. A historical average of 1.16% for the IHSG or 1.1% for the S&P 500 does not mean those indexes will necessarily rise by the same amount in every October.
Market conditions can be affected by interest rates, inflation, economic growth, corporate earnings, investor sentiment, geopolitical developments, and other factors.
Comparing Bitcoin, IHSG, and S&P 500
The historical data can be summarized as follows:
| Asset | Average October Return | Positive Years | Data Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | +19% | 10 of 13 years | 2013–2025 |
| IHSG | +1.16% | 8 of 10 years | 2016–2025 |
| S&P 500 | +1.1% | Around 62% positive | 2006–2025 |
The numbers highlight the different historical characteristics of each market.
Bitcoin recorded the highest average October return in the comparison, but it has also experienced significantly larger annual fluctuations.
Meanwhile, the stock indexes showed smaller average October gains. Their performance represents a broader group of companies rather than the price movement of a single digital asset.
The comparison therefore needs to consider both return and volatility rather than focusing on return alone.
What Investors Should Consider Before Using Seasonality Data
Historical seasonality can be useful for understanding market behavior, but several limitations should be considered.
First, historical performance does not predict future returns. A pattern that occurred repeatedly in the past can change as market conditions evolve.
Second, the starting and ending periods matter. Bitcoin's CAGR can change significantly depending on the years included because several years produced unusually large gains or losses.
Third, volatility matters. A higher long-term return can come with larger drawdowns, which may not be suitable for every investor.
Fourth, diversification remains important. Investors can consider different asset classes based on their financial objectives, investment horizon, and tolerance for losses.
The comparison between Bitcoin and stock indexes is therefore more useful as a way to understand different market characteristics than as a simple ranking of investment performance.
Accessing Different Asset Classes Through Pluang
Investors looking to gain exposure to different markets can access Bitcoin, U.S. stocks and ETFs, and Indonesian stocks through Pluang.
As of October 1, 2026, the minimum transaction amounts cited by Pluang are Rp10,000 for crypto purchases and Rp5,000 for crypto sales.
For U.S. stocks and ETFs, the minimum transaction is US$1 for market orders, while limit, stop, and stop-limit orders have a minimum of US$1.50.
For Indonesian stocks, the minimum transaction is one lot, or 100 shares, following the standard lot size on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
These minimums make it possible to access different asset categories with relatively small transaction amounts. However, minimum transaction sizes do not eliminate investment risk.
Investors still need to consider potential losses, volatility, fees, and whether an asset fits their financial objectives.
Bitcoin Seasonality Is About Historical Patterns, Not Guarantees
The historical data shows a clear difference in the magnitude of October returns between Bitcoin and major stock indexes. Bitcoin averaged around 19% in October from 2013 to 2025, compared with approximately 1.16% for the IHSG and 1.1% for the S&P 500 over their respective periods.
At the same time, Bitcoin has experienced much larger annual gains and losses. Its historical CAGR of around 70.1% from 2016 to 2025 was influenced by extreme price movements, including both substantial rallies and severe corrections.
For investors, the key takeaway is that historical return figures need to be considered alongside volatility and drawdown risk.
Bitcoin's “Uptober” history may be an interesting seasonal pattern, but it should not be treated as a guarantee of positive performance in October 2026. Similarly, historical returns for the IHSG and S&P 500 do not guarantee future results.
Understanding these differences can help investors evaluate assets according to their own objectives, investment horizon, and risk tolerance rather than relying on historical returns alone.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. All investments carry risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.