Jakarta - Swan.my.id - The crypto market is showing signs of capital rotation toward selected altcoins as October 2026 begins. DeFi, artificial intelligence (AI), privacy coins, and revenue-generating protocols have attracted stronger buying interest over the past 30 days.
However, Altcoin Season has not officially arrived yet. The CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 64 out of 100, up from 48 a week earlier. The market still needs to reach the 75-point threshold used to identify an official Altcoin Season.
Several altcoins have already recorded substantial gains. Uniswap (UNI) has risen more than 110% over the past 30 days, while Arbitrum (ARB) gained more than 150%. NEAR also climbed around 180%. Meanwhile, PONS surged more than 350%, while Zcash (ZEC) briefly reached a new record above US$1,600.
Altcoin Season Remains Selective
The latest rally has not spread evenly across the entire altcoin market. Instead, capital appears to be concentrating on specific assets, narratives, and ecosystems.
Data from Talos shows that the 10 largest altcoins now account for around 80% of the total altcoin market capitalization. That compares with roughly 70% at the end of 2024.
Talos Head of International Markets Samar Sen said investors are increasingly focusing on particular narratives and ecosystems rather than treating altcoins as one broad trade.
This pattern is also visible in September trading activity. Talos reported that buying dominated overall flows, although the market structure differs from the broader altcoin rally seen in late 2024.
At that time, several major assets, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Hedera (HBAR), participated in the broader market movement.
DeFi, AI and Privacy Coins Attract Attention
DeFi has become one of the sectors receiving stronger attention. Talos data points to solid performance among revenue-generating protocols, on-chain perpetual platforms, and decentralized finance projects.
Several assets, including Hyperliquid (HYPE), LIttle? (LIT), Uniswap (UNI), and Morpho (MORPHO), have attracted market interest.
Privacy-related assets have also gained momentum. Zcash (ZEC) recorded a particularly strong move, while Monero (XMR) and other assets connected to privacy narratives also received attention.
Meanwhile, AI-related tokens such as Venice Token (VVV) and Bittensor (TAO) have benefited from renewed interest in the artificial intelligence narrative.
Bankless host David Hoffman highlighted ARB, UNI, Jupiter (JUP), and Ondo (ONDO), pointing to the revenue generated by the protocols behind these assets.
The development is notable because it suggests that part of the current rally may be connected to actual protocol activity and utility. However, revenue generation alone does not guarantee future token performance.
Meme Coins Still Have Buyers
The renewed interest in utility-focused crypto projects has not eliminated demand for meme coins.
1inch co-founder Sergej Kunz said meme coins recorded the strongest growth in the number of buyers during the past 30 days. At the same time, DeFi, privacy, AI, and tokenized assets also attracted new participants.
Kunz described the pattern as “breadth before depth.” In simple terms, more wallets are buying a wider variety of tokens, but the average amount invested may be smaller.
This suggests that market participation is expanding, although investors may still be cautious about committing significant capital to a single sector.
Besides that, the broader market remains highly selective. Investors appear to be exploring multiple narratives rather than moving capital uniformly across the altcoin market.
Market Participants Are Also Changing
Another difference from previous altcoin rallies can be seen in the structure of market participants.
Talos data shows dealer participation in altcoin trading fell from around 65% at the end of 2024 to approximately 32% in September 2026. Despite the decline, overall trading flows remained tilted toward buying.
Samar Sen said the change indicates that liquidity providers and market makers have played a smaller role in the latest altcoin movement compared with the previous rally.
Meanwhile, retail investors have access to increasingly sophisticated tools. Wallet tracking and copy-trading services, for example, can help traders monitor capital movements between wallets, protocols, and blockchain networks.
However, greater access to market data does not eliminate the risks associated with crypto assets. Price volatility can remain high, particularly among smaller altcoins.
Utility Becomes an Important Market Narrative
The current rotation also highlights the growing importance of utility and real economic activity within crypto.
Michael Egorov, founder of Curve Finance and Yield Basis, said market interest is increasingly moving toward protocols that provide practical functionality and connect crypto infrastructure with financial activity.
Stablecoins are one example. Their use in on-chain foreign exchange and fintech applications could create additional demand if adoption continues to expand.
The development reflects a broader shift in how some investors evaluate crypto projects. Instead of focusing only on price momentum, market participants may also examine protocol revenue, user activity, transaction volume, and real-world applications.
Nevertheless, strong fundamentals do not automatically translate into higher token prices. Token economics, valuation, competition, liquidity, and broader market conditions remain important factors.
What Could Confirm an Altcoin Season?
The current Altcoin Season Index of 64 indicates that market breadth has improved, but it remains below the 75-point level used by CoinMarketCap to classify an Altcoin Season.
Several indicators can therefore be monitored as the market develops:
- Altcoin Season Index: A move toward or above 75 would indicate broader altcoin outperformance based on the index methodology.
- Bitcoin dominance: A decline may indicate that capital is moving toward other crypto assets, although it should not be used alone to confirm an Altcoin Season.
- Altcoin market capitalization: Sustained growth across the broader market would provide another indication of expanding participation.
- Trading volume: Higher volume across multiple sectors can show whether the rally is supported by broader market activity.
- ALT/BTC performance: Altcoins consistently outperforming Bitcoin can provide additional evidence of market rotation.
- Market breadth: Gains spreading beyond a small group of leading tokens would be important for determining whether the rally is becoming broader.
Altcoin Season Is Closer, But Not Confirmed
The crypto market entering October 2026 shows clearer signs of capital rotation toward altcoins. DeFi, AI, privacy coins, meme coins, and tokenized assets are all attracting attention, while capital remains concentrated in selected projects.
UNI, ARB, NEAR, ZEC, and other tokens have posted significant gains, but the market has not yet reached the breadth associated with an official Altcoin Season.
With the Altcoin Season Index at 64, the next developments to watch are whether the index approaches 75 and whether performance expands beyond the largest or most popular altcoins.
Meanwhile, the growing focus on protocol revenue, utility, stablecoins, and real financial applications could become an important part of the market narrative. However, investors should continue to assess individual projects and risks rather than assuming that a broader altcoin rally will lift every token.