Swan.my.id - Indonesia - Bitcoin has historically delivered much stronger October returns than major stock indexes such as the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) and the S&P 500. However, the higher return potential also comes with significantly greater volatility and downside risk.
Bitcoin has recorded an average October return of around 19% between 2013 and 2025, with positive performance in 10 of 13 years. By comparison, the IHSG averaged a 1.16% return during October between 2016 and 2025, while the S&P 500 averaged around 1.1% over the 2006–2025 period.
This historical gap may make Bitcoin's so-called “Uptober” seasonality look attractive. However, investors should not interpret the numbers as proof that Bitcoin is automatically a better investment than stocks. The two asset classes have very different risk profiles, volatility levels, and market characteristics.
What Is Bitcoin Seasonality?
Seasonality refers to a recurring tendency for an asset to perform differently during certain periods of the year.
In the crypto market, October has gained a reputation as “Uptober” because Bitcoin has historically posted relatively strong performance during the month. The pattern has attracted considerable attention from traders and investors looking for potential seasonal trends.
Stock markets also have seasonal patterns. However, their historical October returns tend to be much smaller compared with Bitcoin.
According to the data cited by Pluang, Bitcoin averaged a 19% October return from 2013 to 2025. Bitcoin finished October higher in 10 of those 13 years, giving it a historical positive rate of approximately 77%.
The IHSG, meanwhile, recorded an average October return of 1.16% from 2016 to 2025 and finished higher in eight of those 10 years.
The S&P 500 also showed a positive seasonal tendency, with an average October return of around 1.1% during the 2006–2025 period.
Bitcoin vs IHSG vs S&P 500: October Returns
The historical comparison shows a significant difference in the magnitude of returns.
| Asset | Average October Return | Positive Years | Data Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | +19% | 10 of 13 | 2013–2025 |
| IHSG | +1.16% | 8 of 10 | 2016–2025 |
| S&P 500 | +1.1% | Around 62% | 2006–2025 |
Based on these historical figures, Bitcoin's average October return was roughly 16 to 17 times higher than the average October return of the IHSG and S&P 500.
However, that difference should not be viewed in isolation.
Bitcoin's much larger potential movement is closely connected to its much higher volatility. A 19% monthly average can look impressive, but the same volatility that creates large gains can also produce sharp losses.
Therefore, seasonality can be useful as historical context, but it should not become the sole basis for an investment decision.
Bitcoin's Long-Term Return Has Also Been More Volatile
The difference becomes even clearer when looking beyond October.
According to the data cited by Pluang, Bitcoin generated an estimated CAGR of approximately 70.1% per year between 2016 and 2025. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 generated approximately 15.3% per year over the 29 September 2016 to 29 September 2026 period, including reinvested dividends.
The IHSG recorded a CAGR of approximately 3.08% between 2015 and 2024.
However, these figures cover different periods and should not be interpreted as a perfect apples-to-apples comparison.
Bitcoin's historical CAGR was heavily influenced by extreme price movements during its earlier adoption cycles. For example, Bitcoin gained around 1,368.90% in 2017 and another 303.16% in 2020.
On the other hand, Bitcoin also experienced severe corrections. Its annual return fell by approximately 73.56% in 2018 and 64.27% in 2022.
These numbers highlight an important point: a high long-term CAGR does not mean investors experience that return smoothly every year.
Why Does Bitcoin Have Higher Returns and Higher Risk?
Bitcoin and stock indexes represent fundamentally different types of assets.
The S&P 500 represents a broad group of major U.S. companies across different industries. The IHSG similarly represents the performance of companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
This diversification can help reduce the impact of a single company's performance on the overall index.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, is a single digital asset whose price can respond sharply to changes in liquidity, investor sentiment, institutional demand, regulation, macroeconomic conditions, and crypto market cycles.
Because of these characteristics, Bitcoin can experience much larger price movements than traditional stock indexes.
For investors, this means higher historical returns should always be considered alongside the possibility of substantially larger drawdowns.
Does “Uptober” Guarantee Bitcoin Will Rise?
No.
Historical seasonality does not guarantee future performance.
Bitcoin's October history has generally been strong, but the pattern has experienced exceptions. The positive October trend that had continued in several years was interrupted in October 2025, when Bitcoin declined by approximately 8.5%.
This illustrates why investors should be careful when using seasonal patterns.
A historical tendency can provide context, but it cannot predict the exact direction of the market in a particular year.
Macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, liquidity, institutional flows, regulation, market sentiment, and unexpected events can all influence Bitcoin and stock prices.
What Should Investors Consider Before Comparing Bitcoin and Stocks?
There are several important factors to consider before using historical returns to compare investment assets.
1. CAGR does not represent a typical annual experience
A 70.1% CAGR does not mean an investor earns 70.1% every year. Bitcoin's historical calculation includes extraordinary gains as well as severe losses.
2. The starting point matters
Changing the beginning or ending date can significantly alter the CAGR, especially for highly volatile assets such as Bitcoin.
3. Seasonality is not a prediction
A strong historical October does not guarantee another positive October.
4. Risk tolerance matters
An asset with higher return potential may also experience larger drawdowns. Investors need to consider whether they can tolerate substantial price fluctuations without making emotional decisions.
5. Diversification remains important
The comparison between Bitcoin, IHSG, and the S&P 500 does not have to end with choosing one asset. Different assets can serve different roles within a diversified portfolio.
How to Access Bitcoin and Stocks Through Pluang
Investors looking to gain exposure to different asset classes can access Bitcoin, U.S. stocks and ETFs, and Indonesian stocks through Pluang.
The minimum transaction requirements as of October 1, 2026, are:
| Asset Category | Minimum Buy | Minimum Sell |
|---|---|---|
| Crypto | Rp10,000 | Rp5,000 |
| U.S. Stocks & ETFs – Market Order | US$1.00 | US$1.00 |
| U.S. Stocks & ETFs – Limit/Stop/Stop-Limit | US$1.50 | US$1.50 |
| Indonesian Stocks | 1 lot / 100 shares | 1 lot / 100 shares |
These minimums allow investors to start with relatively small amounts, although the appropriate investment amount should still depend on individual financial circumstances and risk tolerance.
Before investing, investors should understand the characteristics of each asset category rather than treating Bitcoin and stock indexes as equivalent investments.
Bitcoin or Stock Indexes: Which Is Better?
There is no universal answer.
Bitcoin has historically generated much higher returns than the IHSG and S&P 500 over certain periods. Its October seasonality has also been significantly stronger based on the historical data cited above.
However, those returns have come with substantially higher volatility and deeper drawdowns.
The S&P 500 and IHSG have historically generated lower returns but represent diversified baskets of companies and have generally experienced less extreme price movements than Bitcoin.
Therefore, the better choice depends on an investor's objectives, investment horizon, financial capacity, and tolerance for risk.
The Bottom Line
Historical data shows that Bitcoin has significantly outperformed the IHSG and S&P 500 in terms of average October returns and, over certain periods, annualized growth.
Bitcoin's average October return of around 19% compares with approximately 1.16% for the IHSG and 1.1% for the S&P 500.
However, higher historical returns come with higher risk. Bitcoin has experienced annual declines of more than 60% during major market corrections, something investors must be prepared to withstand.
For that reason, Bitcoin seasonality should be viewed as historical information rather than a guaranteed trading signal. Investors should combine historical data with fundamental analysis, risk management, diversification, and their own financial objectives before making an investment decision.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, and every investment carries risk, including the potential loss of capital.